Hot-rolled coil steel prices in the US have increased by 52% within a year, reaching their highest level since May 2022. Analysts suggest that the main reason is that import supply has been restricted by tariff policies.
Steel prices rise sharply
According to Fastmarkets data, the price of hot-rolled coil steel, the benchmark commodity for the US steel market, is currently at 1,255 USD/short ton (approximately 907 kg). This is the highest level since May 2022.
The article also compares hot-rolled coil steel prices in the US with other markets: about two-thirds higher than in Europe and nearly triple that of China.
Imports decline, domestic supply tightens
The US currently imposes a 50% tariff on imported steel. According to the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI), the volume of finished steel imports in the first 9 months of 2026 decreased by 14% compared to the same period, to about 13 million tons. The market share of imported steel in the US fell from 19% to 16%.
Mr. Josh Spoores, a steel industry analyst at CRU Group, stated that import restrictions along with frequent changes in US trade policy with Canada and Mexico have caused many businesses to reduce purchases of foreign steel. This has led to a supply shortage.
Fastmarkets estimates that maintenance schedules at US steel mills during the September–December 2026 period will affect more than 1 million tons of production.
Developments among manufacturers
The article names three major US steel manufacturers benefiting from the price increase: Nucor, Cleveland-Cliffs, and Steel Dynamics. Nucor shares have risen more than 50% since the beginning of the year. Analysts forecast that the revenue and profits of steel companies will continue to grow as third-quarter results are announced in the coming weeks.
In September 2026, Cleveland-Cliffs announced an indefinite suspension of part of the operations at its subsidiary Stelco in Canada, affecting about 500 workers. Cleveland-Cliffs acquired Stelco in 2024 for 3.4 billion CAD, equivalent to about 2.4 billion USD. The Canadian government has warned it may file a lawsuit regarding commitments to maintain jobs.
Also in September 2026, the US President announced the Mesabi Metallics steel mill project in Iowa. The project has an investment of 15 billion USD, a design capacity of 10 million tons/year, and is expected to go into production around the end of this decade.
Forecast
Mr. Richard Bourke, a senior analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, believes that US steel prices may continue to rise. He cites two reasons:
- Scrap steel prices are rising earlier than the trend typically seen at the end of the year.
- Supply contract negotiations for 2027 are currently favoring manufacturers, and discounts may be lower than in recent years.
The article also assesses that rising steel prices help improve manufacturer profits but increase costs for steel-consuming industries, such as manufacturing, construction, and data center development.
Source summary: Fastmarkets; American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI); CRU Group; Bloomberg Intelligence (via Nhip song kinh doanh, article “US: Steel prices rise to highest level in over 4 years due to tariff impact”, author Quang Thinh, dated October 17, 2026, citing BNEWS/VNA).
