Ahead of the administrative merger, the real estate market in these two key northern industrial provinces has shown clear movements. Many investors expect that the merger process will be a catalyst to boost infrastructure, planning, and real estate values to a new level.
Bac Giang: Market recovers impressively after a stagnant period
After the stagnant period of 2022–2023, Bac Giang real estate has seen an impressive recovery since the beginning of 2024. According to the Bac Giang Real Estate Association, the first quarter of 2024 recorded approximately 3,400 real estate transactions through notarization, a significant increase compared to the same period last year. The average selling price across the market increased by 10–15% compared to the 2023 bottom.
According to data from the Bac Giang Department of Justice, in the first quarter of 2024 alone, the entire province recorded more than 3,400 real estate transfer transactions through notarization, an increase of nearly 40% compared to the same period last year.
In particular, the auction land market has become vibrant, with many auctions setting records. For example, the auction of 65 land plots in Viet Yen town on May 15 had a total starting price of 93.9 billion VND, but the winning price reached 198.8 billion VND, a difference of 104 billion VND. The starting prices for the plots were 13–20 million VND/m2, but the winning prices reached 35–50 million VND/m2, with some plots even reaching over 60 million VND/m2.
Residential land prices in communes near industrial parks such as Tang Tien, Van Trung, and Hong Thai (Viet Yen) increased by 20–30% compared to the end of 2023. The areas of Lang Giang and Yen Dung districts – two localities slated for merger – also recorded vibrant transactions, especially in the segment of housing for experts and small land plots.
The merger of Yen Dung district into Bac Giang city from January 1, 2025, also created a new "wave" of expectations for the market. Areas such as Nham Bien town, Tan Lieu, Huong Gian… recorded price increases of 5–8% in just the last few months, according to statistics from a local brokerage firm.
Bac Ninh: New supply remains limited, prices remain anchored high
Meanwhile, in Bac Ninh, the market is more stable, but price levels remain high, especially in areas with good connectivity infrastructure such as Tu Son, Yen Phong, and Que Vo.
According to the Q1/2025 report of a well-known real estate research unit in the market, the asking price level in Bac Ninh has not decreased, and even increased slightly by 3–5% compared to the same period. Land plot prices in Tu Son range from 45–70 million VND/m2 depending on the location, Yen Phong reaches about 25–40 million VND/m2, while the center of Bac Ninh city maintains a level of 70–100 million VND/m2.
A notable point is that the supply of new projects in Bac Ninh is scarce because many projects have to wait for planning reviews after implementing the administrative arrangement scheme. Some areas like Tien Du and Thuu Thanh – where the district merger is expected – are becoming destinations for long-term investors, especially with cash flow targeting industrial parks and logistics services.
In 2024, Bac Ninh still maintained its top position in the country in attracting FDI. According to the Bac Ninh Statistics Office, the province granted new licenses to 359 FDI projects, with a total registered capital of 1.8 billion USD (an increase of 70.7% compared to the previous year). Including new capital, adjustments, and capital contributions for share purchases, Bac Ninh attracted approximately 4.8 billion USD in FDI in 2024.
Major projects contributing to boosting the demand for industrial real estate and worker housing include: Foxconn's FCPV factory (383 million USD); Goertek Nam Son – Hap Linh (280 million USD); Victory Giant Vietnam (260 million USD); LOGOS Yen Phong II-A (74 million USD).
In addition, Bac Ninh is currently planning to implement 53 social housing projects, with a total area of 170 hectares, providing about 73,000 apartments to serve more than 219,000 workers – according to data from the provincial Department of Construction. This is a strategic step to balance the market and solve the housing problem for the increasingly large workforce at industrial parks.
Infrastructure is the lever
Both Bac Ninh and Bac Giang are located in the expanded Capital region, benefiting greatly from strategic infrastructure routes that are being and will be implemented.
For example, the Ring Road 4 of the Capital Region passes through both Bac Ninh and connects directly to Hiep Hoa and Viet Yen districts of Bac Giang.
The road connecting National Highway 18 – Yen Phong Industrial Park – Que Vo Industrial Park has been and is being expanded, creating conditions for the circulation of goods and residents.
Or the Ninh Binh – Bac Giang expressway, the planning phase of which has been completed, is expected to be finished before 2030.
Ring Road 5 is expected to connect inter-provincial urban – industrial areas, opening up opportunities for price increases in suburban districts such as Luc Nam, Luc Ngan (Bac Giang) and Gia Binh, Luong Tai (Bac Ninh).
Đặc biệt, dự án tuyến đường kết nối sân bay Gia Bình với Thủ đô Hà Nội cũng đã được đề xuất, tổng vốn hơn 71.000 tỷ đồng mang đến nhiều kỳ vọng về khả năng kết nối cũng như gia tăng giá trị Bất động sản khu vực này.
Dự báo sau sáp nhập: Phân hoá theo vị trí và quy hoạch
Các chuyên gia từ BHS Group và Savills Việt Nam cùng nhận định, sau sáp nhập, các địa phương được nâng cấp từ xã lên phường hoặc từ huyện lên thị xã có thể chứng kiến đợt tăng giá mới, nhất là ở các khu lõi hành chính, ven khu công nghiệp, gần trục giao thông chính.
Tuy nhiên, thị trường sẽ không “sốt” đại trà mà có sự phân hoá rõ rệt. Những khu vực hạ tầng chưa theo kịp, thiếu quy hoạch hoặc nằm ngoài hành lang phát triển sẽ khó tăng trưởng nhanh.
Phân khúc tiềm năng nhất trong giai đoạn 2025–2027 được đánh giá là: Bất động sản công nghiệp, nhà ở công nhân, đất nền khu vực giáp ranh các khu đô thị mới và khu vực có quy hoạch phân khu rõ ràng sau sáp nhập.
Nhìn chung, sự kiện sắp xếp đơn vị hành chính tại Bắc Ninh và Bắc Giang không chỉ là cải cách bộ máy mà còn là động lực định hình lại toàn bộ cấu trúc đô thị, công nghiệp, từ đó mở ra nhiều cơ hội cho thị trường Bất động sản. Tuy nhiên, đây là cuộc chơi dài hơi, nhà đầu tư cần theo dõi sát các quy hoạch chi tiết, tiến độ triển khai hạ tầng và sự chuyển dịch dòng vốn đầu tư.
(Nguồn:CafeLand)
